Selon des fuites, quelques membres du Gouvernement Elisabeth Borne I-Macron II:
Ministre des Armées : Guillaume Ancel
Ministre de l'Intérieur: Alain Gauthier
Ministre de la Santé: Dr Jean-Michel Macron
Ministre des Finances et de l'Economie: André-Louis Auzière
Ministre d'Outre-Mer et de la Francophonie: Louise Mushikiwabo
Ministre de l'Intégration et de l'Immigration: Eric Zemmour
Ministre de la Justice: Marc Trévidic
Ministre de la Jeunesse et de l'enfance: Typhaine Auzière.
...
Vives Félicitations aux nouveaux Ministres !
-- ________________________________________________________________ -Ushobora kohereza message yawe kuri : rwandaforum@googlegroups.com -Ushobora kwiyandikisha kuri iyo groupe wandikira: rwandaforum+subscribe@googlegroups.com -Ushobora kwikura kuri iyo groupe wandikira: rwandaforum+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com -Archives z'iyi groupe ushobora kuzisoma kuri: https://rwandaforumonline.blogspot.com/ -Contact: rwandaforumonline@gmail.com ____________________________________________________ --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Rwanda Forum" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to rwandaforum+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rwandaforum/1573480613.155353.1652963535788%40mail.yahoo.com.
The Inevitable Coming Recession and How To Prepare for It
Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein added to recession talk after telling CBS on Sunday that an economic downturn is "a very, very high risk factor."
It is not only Blankfein warning about a GDP contraction. Many Wall Street analysts are increasingly becoming worried that a recession could turn into the base case for forecasts over the next 12 to 24 months.
A recent Bloomberg monthly survey of economists found that the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is 30 percent, the highest in two years. This is double the odds economists had anticipated in February.
Morgan Stanley projects (pdf) a 27 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 5 percent in March.
"It now appears that inflation is broadening out and has the potential to stay higher for longer," wrote Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief investment officer Lisa Shalett, in her weekly note. "This is a scenario that places upward pressure on longer-run inflation expectations and keeps the Fed in a policy acceleration mode."
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 02, 2022 in New York City. After falling over 600 points on Friday, stocks were up slightly in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
MOST READ
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari told a town hall event in Michigan on Tuesday that it is unclear if the central bank will need to trigger a recession to bring inflation down.
"My colleagues and I are going to do what we need to do to bring the economy back into balance," he said. "What a lot of economists are scratching their heads and wondering about is: If we really have to bring demand down to get inflation in check, is that going to put the economy into recession? And we don't know."
This comes after former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke acknowledged that the central bank moved too late to tackle inflation, telling The New York Times that the United States could slip into a period of stagflation.
Most CEOs are also bracing for a recession, according to a recent Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence. The gauge dipped into negative territory, tumbling in the second quarter to 42, down from 57 in the first quarter.
While CEOs believe the Fed's quantitative tightening will help combat inflation over the next few years, they are worried that the central bank's efforts will induce a recession.
"CEO confidence weakened further in the second quarter, as executives contended with rising prices and supply chain challenges, which the war in Ukraine and renewed COVID restrictions in China exacerbated," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board, in a statement. "Expectations for future conditions were also bleak, with 60 percent of executives anticipating the economy will worsen over the next six months—a marked rise from the 23 percent who held that view last quarter."
ING is not predicting a recession this year, "but it could be a close-run thing in 2023," says James Knightley, the bank's chief international economist, in a note.
The Atlanta Fed Bank GDPNow model suggests second-quarter growth of 2.4 percent.
Grocery shopping in Rosemead, Calif., on April 21, 2022. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)
Greg McBride, the senior vice president and chief financial analyst at Bankrate, does not believe there are signs of a recession right now because labor trends and consumer spending are strong.
"Even the Q1 GDP wasn't a sign of recession as the contraction was due to the trade deficit (imports rise in a strong economy) and inventory adjustment (fluctuating due to persistent supply chain issues)," McBride told The Epoch Times. "The worries of recession are more about 2023, or even 2024, not 2022."
Sankar Sharma, a market strategist, echoed this sentiment, telling The Epoch Times that recession signs are not prevalent today, but they could start forming in 2023 or 2024.
"We are in an environment where unemployment is very low, with millions of job openings available for the taking, companies, and banks' balance sheets are strong, finance systems are strong and in good shape, and earnings reports are healthy, from today's Home Depot and Walmart results we can see consumer is still spending, credit markets are not under stress, demand for housing hasn't slowed drastically and banks are still well-capitalized," Sharma stated.
Should the United States economy experience a hard landing after the Fed's tightening cycle, the central bank could start cutting interest rates, he added.
But will the financial markets remain on a roller coaster ride over the next two years?
Reading the Market Tea Leaves
U.S. stocks have had a rough 2022, with the leading benchmark indexes losing steam after two years of meteoric growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined by about 12 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has plummeted 25 percent, while the S&P 500 has tumbled roughly 16 percent.
The Treasury market and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measurement of the greenback against a basket of currencies, have surged this year. Commodity prices have soared, while cryptocurrencies have cratered.
With several consecutive weeks of losses in the equities arena, Heeten Doshi, the founder of Doshi Capital Management, remarked in a note that it takes an average of 12 months to recover.
"While the stats are resoundingly positive moving forward (excluding 2008), the most shocking statistic is that on average, it takes 12 months to recover after so many weeks of losses," he wrote.
Since the markets are forward-looking, investors might be pricing in lackluster corporate earnings "well in advance," says McBride.
"A key may be the earnings guidance for 2023 that companies provide in the fourth quarter of the year," he added.
"If inflation recedes and the Fed is seen as being able to respond to a recession with lower rates, bond prices will recoup some of the losses seen so far this year. But this is contingent on a number of factors that will unfold over the next 12 months or so–inflation, Fed policy, and the health of the economy."
For U.S. households, the best strategies to employ, according to McBride, are paying down debt, boosting emergency savings, and taking advantage of the market downturn.
"The risk of jumping out of the market and waiting on the sidelines is that you have to make two correct decisions, not just one. You have to get out at the right time and get back in at the right time," he purported.
A monthly Bank of America survey of fund managers revealed that investors are already beginning to bolster their cash positions. The study reported average cash balances among asset managers was 6.1 percent, suggesting that investors are hoarding cash at the highest level since the September 11 terrorist attacks.
In the end, strategists purport that this is spotlighting an "extremely bearish" position in the financial markets.
Follow
Andrew Moran covers business, economics, and finance. He has been a writer and reporter for more than a decade in Toronto, with bylines on Liberty Nation, Digital Journal, and Career Addict. He is also the author of "The War on Cash."
###
"Hate Cannot Drive Out Hate. Only Love Can Do That", Dr. Martin Luther King.
RWANDA: MUSHIKIWABO YAYOBOYE INAMA Y'ABASIRIKARE BAKURU BA RDF AHAGARARIYE KAGAME.
https://youtu.be/IMaQ221MWaw
Rwanda Broadcasting Agency (RBA)
@rbarwanda
Kuri uyu wa Gatatu, i Kigali hateraniye inama nyunguranabitekerezo ku mutekano izwi nka National Security Symposium. Itegurwa n'Ishuri Rikuru rya Gisirikare rifatanyije na Kaminuza y'u Rwanda. #RBAAmakuru pic.twitter.com/F5qsZuNhdO
HRW Yongeye Gushinja u Rwanda Kwibasira Abatavuga Rumwe n'Ubutegetsi
Umuryango mpuzamahanga uharanira uburenganzira bwa muntu-Human Rights Watch, urashinja ishyaka riri ku butegetsi mu Rwanda, FPR-Inkotanyi gukomeza kuniga amajwi y'abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi no kwibasira abafatwa nk'intambamyi kuri leta hamwe n'abagize imiryango yabo.
Mu byo wo muryango uvuga, harimo ko urubuga rwa politiki mu Rwanda rufunze kandi hakomeje kugaragara ifungwa ridakurikije amategeko.
Ibyo bikubiye muri raporo Human Rights Watch yashyize ahagaragara igaruka ku byaranze umwaka w'2021 mu bijyanye n'uburenganzira bwa muntu mu Rwanda.
Claude Gatebuke - Just did an interview with Russian TV today... | Facebook
Just did an interviewed with Russian TV today (RT) about Kagame's request to have the UK extradite genocide suspects for trial in Rwanda. We also spoke about the human trafficking deal between the UK and Rwanda where the UK will be selling and shipping asylum seekers and refugees to Rwanda.
Right out of the gate, I spoke about genocide survivor Aimable Karasira (Karasira Aimable) to shine a light on his enforced disappearance. He was arrested by Rwandan authorities about a year ago and has not been seen in public, in court, or anywhere since last fall. Rwanda is notorious for disappearing and assassinating people in custody. If Karasira is alive, they must release him.
I also spoke about what happened to Eritrean refugees who were sent to Rwanda in a similar deal between Rwanda and Israel and also spoke about Burundian and Congolese refugees who fled to Rwanda and their plight.
Rôle de la France au Rwanda : un ex-officier condamné pour diffamation envers Hubert Védrine
Par Le Figaro avec AFP
Mis à jour
Image d'illustration, salle du tribunal de Paris. THOMAS COEX / AFP
L'ancien officier français Guillaume Ancel a été condamné lundi 16 mai pour diffamation pour une série de publications mettant en cause l'ancien secrétaire général de l'Élysée Hubert Védrine et son rôle dans la politique de la France lors du génocide des Tutsis du Rwanda en 1994.
Les titres du matinNewsletter
Tous les jours
Recevez chaque matin, l'actualité du jour : politique, international, société...
Guillaume Ancel a été condamné à 2000 euros d'amende avec sursis pour diffamation publique envers un fonctionnaire public dans une quinzaine de tweets et plusieurs articles de son blog, publiés entre mars et juillet 2021. Il a été relaxé en revanche des faits d'injure publique. La 17e chambre du tribunal de Paris, spécialisée dans les délits de presse, a jugé que le prévenu avait «dépassé les limites admissibles de la liberté d'expression» et ne pouvait bénéficier de «l'excuse exonératoire de la bonne foi». Il devra verser un euro de dommages et intérêts au plaignant et retirer les textes jugés diffamatoires publiés sur Twitter et sur son blog.
«Je suis tout à fait heureux de ce jugement», a déclaré à l'AFP Hubert Védrine, précisant qu'il ne s'inscrivait pas dans «une démarche personnelle». Le jugement lundi est une «décision forte» qui est «l'occasion de réaffirmer que la France n'est ni complice ni responsable du génocide des Tutsi au Rwanda», a-t-il ajouté dans un communiqué.
Demander des explications
Lors de l'audience le 18 février, l'ancien secrétaire général de l'Élysée avait longuement défendu la politique menée au Rwanda entre 1990 et 1994 par le président socialiste François Mitterrand et son entourage, mis en cause dans un rapport cinglant d'historiens en mars 2021. De son côté, Guillaume Ancel, ex-militaire déployé au Rwanda pendant Turquoise, opération militaro-humanitaire française controversée ayant eu lieu de juin à août 1994, avait expliqué lors de l'audience avoir voulu par ses publications demander «des explications» aux responsables de la politique française au Rwanda. Réagissant à sa condamnation, il a estimé qu'elle «ne dit rien du rôle d'Hubert Védrine dans ce désastre français qu'a été le Rwanda». «De toute façon, Hubert Védrine aura à un moment ou un autre rendez-vous avec l'Histoire», a-t-il ajouté à l'AFP.
Le rôle de la France au Rwanda entre 1990 et 1994, objet de débats passionnels pendant des décennies, a trouvé une réponse historique avec la publication du rapport Duclert en mars 2021. Ce rapport de plus de 1000 pages, basé sur l'analyse d'archives françaises, a conclu aux responsabilités «lourdes et accablantes» de la France et mis en cause le président d'alors François Mitterrand et son entourage, «aveuglés idéologiquement».
Le rapport Duclert, qui avait toutefois écarté toute «complicité» de génocide de la France, a permis un réchauffement spectaculaire des relations entre Paris et Kigali. Le génocide au Rwanda, orchestré par le régime extrémiste hutu, a fait plus de 800.000 morts, essentiellement Tutsi, massacrés entre avril et juillet 1994.
À VOIR AUSSI - Hubert Védrine était l'invité de la matinale Radio Classique – Le Figaro
###
"Hate Cannot Drive Out Hate. Only Love Can Do That", Dr. Martin Luther King.
