Le Régime Rwandais et l'Instrumentalisation des Divisions Ethniques en RDC et au Burundi
Résumé exécutif
Depuis la fin du génocide de 1994, le Rwanda s'est construit une image internationale de nation réconciliée, ayant transcendé les divisions ethniques. Cependant, cette étude démontre que le régime de Paul Kagame maintient un double discours stratégique : alors qu'il nie officiellement toute référence ethnique à l'intérieur de ses frontières, il instrumentalise systématiquement ces mêmes identités chez ses voisins — particulièrement en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et au Burundi — pour servir des objectifs géopolitiques, économiques et sécuritaires.
Cette instrumentalisation prend plusieurs formes : soutien militaire et financier à des groupes rebelles (notamment le M23 en RDC), manipulation du discours de « protection des Tutsis » pour justifier des interventions armées, déstabilisation délibérée des gouvernements burundais et congolais, et exploitation illégale des ressources minières de l'est du Congo. Le paradoxe est flagrant : un régime qui prétend avoir aboli l'ethnicité utilise précisément ce concept comme instrument de politique étrangère.
Cette analyse examine les mécanismes de cette double stratégie, ses conséquences humanitaires désastreuses (plus de six millions de morts depuis 1996) et la complicité internationale qui permet sa perpétuation. Elle démontre que les communautés tutsies congolaises, loin d'être protégées, sont devenues les otages involontaires d'un agenda régional qui les instrumentalise tout en les marginalisant.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Peace as a Geopolitical Instrument
For nearly three decades, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has remained at the epicenter of regional instability where economic interests, security issues, and power rivalries intertwine. Recurrent conflicts in the eastern part of the country — particularly in the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Maniema — reveal not only the structural fragility of the Congolese state but, more importantly, the systematic instrumentalization of this weakness by foreign and regional powers.
Two recent diplomatic dynamics embody this reality:
The Washington system, which relies on a logic of regional economic and security integration supposedly beneficial to stability, but whose real dividends primarily favour Rwanda;
The Doha system, which tends to legitimize the M23 rebellion and ratify the fragmentation of Congolese sovereignty for Kigali's benefit.
In both cases, these peace mechanisms are part of a façade diplomacy where conflict resolution mechanisms are transformed into tools of influence and control, rather than instruments of justice and sovereignty.
République démocratique du Congo (RDC) : la paix comme instrument géopolitique
Depuis près de trois décennies, la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) demeure l'épicentre d'une instabilité régionale où s'entremêlent intérêts économiques, enjeux sécuritaires et rivalités d'influence. Les conflits récurrents dans l'Est du pays — notamment dans les provinces du Nord-Kivu, du Sud-Kivu, de l'Ituri et du Maniema — révèlent non seulement la fragilité structurelle de l'État congolais, mais surtout l'instrumentalisation systématique de cette faiblesse par des puissances étrangères et régionales.
Deux dynamiques diplomatiques récentes incarnent cette réalité :
·Le système de Washington, qui repose sur une logique d'intégration régionale économique et sécuritaire prétendument bénéfique à la stabilité, mais dont les dividendes réels favorisent principalement le Rwanda
·Le système de Doha, qui tend à légitimer la rébellion du M23 et à entériner la fragmentation de la souveraineté congolaise au profit de Kigali.
Dans les deux cas, ces dispositifs de paix s'inscrivent dans une diplomatie de façade où les mécanismes de résolution des conflits se transforment en outils d'influence et de contrôle, plutôt qu'en instruments de justice et de souveraineté.
The president made the remark in a "60 Minutes" interview that aired Sunday, during which he explained that Maduro's regime not only has been the source of drugs and crime in the US — but is also responsible for the mass migration of Venezuelans.
"They've been treating us very badly, not only on drugs. They've dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country that we didn't want — people from prisons. They emptied their prisons into our country," he said. "They also, if you take a look, they emptied their mental institutions and their insane asylums into the United States of America."
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The gangs Tren de Aragua and Cartel de Los Soles, which have been responsible for robberies, drug trafficking and sexual exploitation across the US, both arrived with the latest wave of Venezuelan refugees.
Trump is backing up his fiery words with real firepower — sending the world's largest warship, the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier; nuclear submarines; guided-missile destroyers and cruisers and troops to the Caribbean.
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President Trump on Sunday told 60 Minutes that he thinks Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro's "days are numbered" as president of the South American country. REUTERS
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Maduro has ruled Venezuela since 2013, despite rigging back-to-back elections in 2019 and 2023, which observers say he likely lost badly.
He also remains defiant in the face of his nation's economic collapse, international sanctions and growing isolation.
Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado previously told The Post that she believes many of the 8 million Venezuelans who have fled Maduro's regime will return to their home country if the dictator is ousted.
"This regime systematically and intentionally looked to expel millions of Venezuelans. Imagine if one- third of the US population had to flee? This is devastating for us," she explained in an interview last month. "The day Maduro goes, you will see hundreds of thousands of Venezuela from all over the world and the US coming back home."
Military buildup
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There are currently eight US warships currently in the region, according to publicly available Pentagon data.
That number will soon jump to 14, and more than 10,000 troops, after the Pentagon last week announced the deployment of America's largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and its accompanying strike group of escort vessels.
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Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ruled Venezuela since 2013, despite losing back-to-back elections in 2019 and 2023 and remains defiant amid economic collapse, international sanctions and growing isolation. Venezuelan Presidency/AFP via Getty Images
The Ford and five accompanying guided-missile destroyers — the USS Mahan, USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Bainbridge, USS Mitscher and USS Forrest Sherman — left Europe late last week and are expected to arrive in the region by the end of this week.
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The build-up began more than two months ago, with Trump deploying an initial seven warships — including three guided-missile destroyers and a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine — carrying 4,500 service members to the waters surrounding Venezuela on Aug. 29.
Those ships carried out a series at least 14 strikes on suspected drug boats out of Venezuela, killing more than 60 accused narcoterrorists — something Trump described as "fortunate" in his 60 Minutes interview.
"Every one of those boats that you see shot down — and I agree it's a terrible thing — but every one of those boats kills 25,000 Americans," Trump said.
Along with the ships, hoards of military aircraft from fighter jets to B-52 bombers are also operating in the region.
That effort centers around Roosevelt Roads, a former Cold War-era naval base in Puerto Rico that's being rapidly rebuilt to serve as the operation's nerve center. The sprawling facility once served as a launch pad for US missions across the Caribbean and Latin America.
Now, it's roaring back to life as tensions with the Maduro regime spike.
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The USS Gravely, a US Navy guided-missile destroyer, is one of eight warships currently in the vicinity of Venezuela. AFP via Getty Images
Construction activity began in September, with the preparation of taxiways leading to the runway at the long-forgotten air base captured in photos by Reuters.
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That same month, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth deployed 10 F-35 fighter jets — the most modern in America's arsenal — to Puerto Rico. Since then, V-22 transport aircraft, KC-130 refueling tankers and C-17 cargo transports have also joined the fighter jets.
The buildup puts more US military assets in the region than any time since the 1989 invasion of Panama to depose Manuel Noriega.
"I'm not saying it's true or untrue, but … I wouldn't be inclined to say that I would do that because I don't talk to a reporter about whether or not I'm going to strike," he said.
"We are certainly looking at land now because we've got the sea under control," he said in response to a reporter's question in the Oval Office.
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Venezuela's President Maduro shakes hands with a Caribbean parliamentarian. via REUTERS
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"A lot of Venezuelan drugs come in through the sea. So you get to see that, but we're going to stop them by land also."
Still, Trump in the 60 Minutes interview said that he "doubts" that the US would "go to war" with Venezuela — hinting that a regime change could come without a full-scale conflict with Caracas.
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"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few; and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence", George Washington.
