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US Should Persuade Brazil to Join Minerals Alliance to Secure Key Metal for Hypersonic Missiles: Researchers
The Pentagon warned Congress last year that China already "has the world's leading hypersonic arsenal."
The United States needs to fortify its supply chain of niobium, a key metal in the production of hypersonic missiles, as China aims for technological and military preeminence, according to experts from Washington-based think tanks the Atlantic Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In a commentary article published on March 4, Guido L. Torres, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and three CSIS researchers wrote that Brazil is one of the largest niobium producers, making it important for the United States and its like-minded allies that the South American country choose to join the U.S.-led Minerals Security Partnership over overtures from China.
The three CSIS researchers are Ryan C. Berg, Laura Delgado López, and Henry Ziemer, all of whom work at the center's Americas Program.
"China's hypersonic resolve has been remarkable," the four researchers wrote. "By 2018, it had conducted over 20 times as many tests as the United States. According to the Pentagon, the United States is still lagging. This hypersonic prowess, combined with China's stranglehold on niobium, places the United States in a perilous position."
The Pentagon, in its annual report to Congress last year, warned that China already "has the world's leading hypersonic arsenal," which includes the DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles that can be armed with hypersonic glide vehicles. According to the report, China intends to use hypersonic weapons such as the DF-17 to target foreign military bases and fleets in the Western Pacific.
Established in 2022, the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) is a collaboration among 14 nations and the European Union over mining, extracting, processing, and refining critical minerals. The countries include Australia, Canada, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States.
In February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, Brazil. According to a readout of the meeting from the State Department, Mr. Blinken "noted the importance of strengthening cooperation on critical minerals with Brazil, including through the Minerals Security Partnership."
"Brazil's inclusion would make it the first Latin American country to enter the partnership, signaling its regional leadership and increase in international stature," the researchers wrote. "The integration of Brazil into this partnership is particularly strategic, considering its substantial niobium reserves, in addition to its other critical mineral deposits. This move would add a robust layer of security against potential supply disruptions."
Niobium Alloys
A niobium alloy known as C-103—which is a mixture of about 89 percent niobium, 10 percent hafnium, and about 1 percent titanium—has been used in the aerospace industry, as the alloy can withstand high stresses at extremely high temperatures.The C-103 alloy has been the material of choice for the rocket nozzle for decades, from the Apollo space program to Elon Musk's Falcon rockets. Now, the same alloy is a key material for the development of hypersonic vehicles, which travel at five times the speed of sound.
The United States relies heavily on imports to fill its niobium needs. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there has been no significant niobium mine production in the United States since 1959.
In 2023, the United States imported 9,400 tons of niobium, with Brazil accounting for 66 percent of the import and Canada 26 percent, according to USGS. The agency also noted that Brazil, with the world's largest niobium reserves, exported 50,556 tons of niobium from January to August 2023, most of which went to China, followed by the Netherlands and Singapore.
The researchers noted that U.S. reliance on Brazil and Canada "exposes the United States to considerable national security and economic vulnerabilities."
Meanwhile, China has made inroads into Brazil's niobium market. According to the researchers, five Chinese companies acquired a 15 percent stake in Brazilian niobium producer CBMM in 2011, and another Chinese company secured ownership of niobium mines in 2016. By 2020, Chinese entities had control of about 26 percent of Brazil's niobium production, the researchers added.
"China's influence over Brazil's niobium production conforms to a pattern of growing ownership and sway over the regional mining industry, a trend with substantial environmental, political, and security implications," the researchers wrote.
"Such tactics could force nations into making diplomatic compromises, ceding trade advantages, or grappling with economic dilemmas, thereby solidifying China's geopolitical standing."
If Brazil decides to join the MSP, it could be "instrumental in mitigating China's dominant influence in the niobium market," according to the researchers.
Recommendation
The researchers also offered other recommendations. They said the Elk Creek project in Nebraska "represents a commendable step toward addressing this vulnerability domestically."The Elk Creek project is being developed by NioCorp Developments Ltd. Once completed, it will be North America's only mining and processing facility to produce niobium, scandium, and titanium, according to the company's website.
NioCorp CEO Mark A. Smith is scheduled to speak during the SAFE Summit in Washington, which will be held on March 12 and 13. He will speak on the first day during a session titled "Crippling America Without Firing a Shot: China's Extreme Critical Minerals Leverage."
Canada, which has the world's second-largest niobium reserves after Brazil, is an "ideal partner" for the United States, the researchers said, as the neighbors could facilitate joint ventures in niobium exploration and development.
The researchers added that measures must also be taken to expand the reserves of niobium and other strategic minerals at the National Defense Stockpile.
